China Gaoshou 中国高手, Mountain Man, Food Maven

  Am I ready to take a Victory Lap on Deflation in the Chinese Economy? Well, not quite yet, but I’m getting closer to doing that.   Back in the middle of March, I put up a blog post entitled, “Deflation is threatening the Chinese Economy.   China’s Government has not been helping matters,” which argued that the specter of deflation loomed over China.   The latest official government data on 2 nd quarter economic growth released in July shows that deflation remains a real threat to the Chinese economy. According to a Reuters   review of the latest Chinese inflation numbers from the National Bureau of Statistics, consumer prices rose 0.2% from a year earlier in June.   While this was the fifth straight monthly rise in prices, the June figure came in below the 0.4% increase forecast in a Reuters poll.   The June inflation rate was below the 0.3% price uptick over the previous year recorded for May and was the slowest price rise in three months. ...

  Thoughts on China’s Real Estate Crisis   After three years, China remains mired in a deep housing and real estate slump.   According to a March 21, 2024 report from the leading global investment firm KKR , this housing recession may not be ending anytime soon.   Based on a comparison to the housing bubbles in the US, Japan and Spain, KKR concludes that the Chinese “housing market correction may be just halfway complete.” If true, this is very bad news, as it comes on the heels of an already sharp contraction in China’s real estate sector.   In a June 25 th   Financial Times editorial , highly respected China economic observer, Chen Long, summarizes the fall in Chinese housing activity.   Basing his calculations on official Chinese Government data, Chen notes that on a rolling 12-month basis, home sales in China have dropped to 850 million square meters, or roughly 8.5 million apartments, which is half the level of three years ago.   He ...