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Showing posts from July, 2025
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  WHAT THE RECENTLY RELEASED 2025 Q2 DATA DUMP SAYS ABOUT CHINA’S ECONOMY AND PROSPECTS FOR REBOUNDING IT: On July 15 th China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released a raft of new data on the performance of its economy during the 2 nd quarter (Q2) of this year.   Unlike other recent Chinese economic data dumps, this one was not totally dismal.   In particular, the economy grew at a faster than expected pace during Q2.   But even this bit of good news needs to be substantially qualified.   At the same time, other data points—retail sales, consumer spending, and housing—are indicative of ongoing fragility in the world’s 2 nd largest economy and the difficulty of rebalancing it toward greater consumption. First, one bit of good economic news.  China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 5.2% during Q2, beating, albeit barely, the 5.1% rise predicted by a Reuters poll of economists.  However, lest anyone get too carried away by this, the Q2 growt...
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  BRING ON THE ZOMBIE FIRMS: The problems afflicting China’s economy keep on multiplying.   As if the years long real estate slump that is unlikely to end anytime soon and trade war with the U.S. were not enough, there has also been a sharp rise in the number of loss-making Chinese industrial enterprises.   Rather than being allowed to fail, these “zombie” firms are being propped by local governments to avoid mass layoffs and keep a lid on social unrest.   According to a June 12 th Bloomberg report , 1 out of every 4 of China’s manufacturing firms were bleeding red ink during 2024.   That is double the percentage of loss-making industrial companies in 2010-2011 and the highest such figure since 2001.   Some Chinese provinces have an even higher proportion of such unprofitable businesses:   in Shanxi, for example, 40% of manufacturing enterprises failed to make money last year.   Drawing upon Chinese National Bureau of Statistics survey data, ...