China Gaoshou 中国高手, Mountain Man, Food Maven

  The Latest Chinese Government Stimulus Package:   How Effective Will It Be? The Chinese economy continues to disappoint when it comes to deflation, consumer spending, economic growth, and recently even exports.   The latest numbers in these areas are almost uniformly dismal and have prompted Beijing to finally take major action to revitalize China’s anemic economy.   The question is whether or not these measures will be effective.   First the most recent data, starting with the trend in prices.   According to an October 13 th Reuters article , the consumer price index (CPI) increased just 0.4% from a year earlier in September, compared to a 0.6% hike in August.   The September CPI rise was the lowest in three months and fell short of the expected 0.6% mark predicted in a Reuters poll of economists.   The producer price index (PPI), which gauges the cost of goods at the factory gate, fell by 2.8% in September, the biggest drop in six months...

  Shifting Chinese Attitudes on Socio-Economic Inequality Should Concern China’s Leaders Beliefs among ordinary Chinese regarding the sources of socio-economic inequality have undergone a drastic change over the past decade.   While this shift does not portend widespread open social protest in which people take to streets against the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP), it is something that ought to worry President Xi Jinping.   As is well-known, starting in the 1980s, China rejected the model of tight Communist state control over the economy in favor of market reforms.   To be sure, a high degree of state involvement in and control over the economy remained in place.   The MIT economist Huang Yasheng, whose book, Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics , remains one of my favorite works on the Chinese economy rightfully characterized the post-Maoist model as “state capitalism” (he made this comment during a brief conversation I had with him at a conference o...

  Am I ready to take a Victory Lap on Deflation in the Chinese Economy? Well, not quite yet, but I’m getting closer to doing that.   Back in the middle of March, I put up a blog post entitled, “Deflation is threatening the Chinese Economy.   China’s Government has not been helping matters,” which argued that the specter of deflation loomed over China.   The latest official government data on 2 nd quarter economic growth released in July shows that deflation remains a real threat to the Chinese economy. According to a Reuters   review of the latest Chinese inflation numbers from the National Bureau of Statistics, consumer prices rose 0.2% from a year earlier in June.   While this was the fifth straight monthly rise in prices, the June figure came in below the 0.4% increase forecast in a Reuters poll.   The June inflation rate was below the 0.3% price uptick over the previous year recorded for May and was the slowest price rise in three months. ...

  Thoughts on China’s Real Estate Crisis   After three years, China remains mired in a deep housing and real estate slump.   According to a March 21, 2024 report from the leading global investment firm KKR , this housing recession may not be ending anytime soon.   Based on a comparison to the housing bubbles in the US, Japan and Spain, KKR concludes that the Chinese “housing market correction may be just halfway complete.” If true, this is very bad news, as it comes on the heels of an already sharp contraction in China’s real estate sector.   In a June 25 th   Financial Times editorial , highly respected China economic observer, Chen Long, summarizes the fall in Chinese housing activity.   Basing his calculations on official Chinese Government data, Chen notes that on a rolling 12-month basis, home sales in China have dropped to 850 million square meters, or roughly 8.5 million apartments, which is half the level of three years ago.   He ...